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I hope no one seriously pursues signing him in the summer. Our owners would sell imo and only give Moyes 20m back to replace him.
Is Declan Rice worth £100 million?
Each week Declan Rice’s stock continues to rise for West Ham United.
So it comes as no surprise that David Moyes firmly believes the midfielder is worth in excess of £100 million.
While Craig Dawson and Jesse Lingard deservedly got the plaudits for scoring in the 2-0 win over Leeds United, it was another composed performance in midfield from Rice. The 22-year-old made more tackles (three) and more ball recoveries (seven) than any other player in the first half.
After the game the England international spoke about areas of his game he could improve, his blossoming midfield partnership with Tomas Soucek and his intention to drive more from the midfield, similar to the likes of Yaya Toure and Patrick Vieira.
In July Moyes told The Athletic it would take “Bank of England money” to sell Rice.
“I don’t agree with the owners that Declan Rice is a £100 million footballer. Far, far more than £100 million. I look at the players who have joined some clubs from overseas and come in and had nowhere near the impact Declan Rice would have.
“I certainly wouldn’t put a price on it. The owners think he’s worth £100 million — well, I completely disagree with that. You can decide which figure you want to put on it but I wouldn’t be sanctioning anything like that, that’s for sure.”
In the last 12 months, Arsenal signed Thomas Partey for £45 million, Tottenham Hotspur signed Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg for £15 million, while Manchester United picked up Donny van de Beek for £35 million. Rice’s contract expires in the summer of 2024 and there is an option to extend by a further year.
He has been in great form this season and has excelled in his role as captain while deputising for Mark Noble.
Despite previously being a target for Chelsea, West Ham have not received a bid for Rice and are confident the midfielder’s valuation will deter any potential suitors.
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Rice celebrates West Ham’s second goal with Craig Dawson (Photo: Ian Walton – Pool/Getty Images)
According to the CIES Football Observatory, Rice’s transfer valuation is €72 million (£62 million). Of all the midfielders who play in the top four leagues in Europe, Rice’s valuation is the 12th highest. It is less than Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes’ €151 million (£130 million), Chelsea pair Kai Havertz’s €136 million (£117 million) and Mason Mount’s €109 million (£94 million) and Manchester City duo Rodri’s €97.6 million (£84 million) and Phil Foden’s €82 million (£70 million).
Rice’s stats show he is arguably one of the best midfielders in the Premier League.
Of all the midfielders in the league, Rice is second when it comes to interceptions with 52, behind Burnley’s Josh Brownhill with 55. Rice is also in the top six when it comes to ball recoveries with 198, behind Youri Tielemans (202), Yves Bissouma (202), James Ward-Prowse (203), Rodri (212) and Hojbjerg (222).
However, the market tells us that defensive midfielders are rarely sold for more than £65 million.
“A good example is someone like Wilfried Zaha at Crystal Palace,” says Omar Chaudhuri, chief intelligence officer at 21st Club, the football data analysis firm. “He’s been one of their best players and has a huge amount of value to Palace. But if they were to lose Zaha and fail to replace him they would probably struggle. But Zaha’s value to another club, particularly a top-eight side, might be a lot lower than what Palace value him at.
“Those clubs tend to have a lot of good players in wide positions, so they’ll have more options. A club like Manchester City could sign a player like Ferran Torres and be satisfied with that, as opposed to having to sign Zaha for a lot more money. There’s a clear distinction between buyer and seller and that has a role in the context of Declan Rice.”
Moves to Arsenal and Everton failed to materialise for Zaha. The winger is currently 28. He turns 29 in November. No club has been willing to match Palace’s £80 million valuation. But with Rice being this impressive at such a young age and nowhere near his peak, his trajectory suggests he could end up being one of the best defensive midfielders this country has ever produced.
In the unlikely event West Ham sell Rice, the market tells us they could encounter a similar problem to Palace where potential suitors are reluctant to match their valuation, as Chaudhuri explains.
“If you’re a club looking to sign Declan Rice your argument could be you have pretty firm evidence to say defensive midfielders don’t get sold for this much,” he says. “A buyer could say we’ll sign Rice for £100 million but will we earn an extra £100 million in revenue?
“Ultimately, when you’re paying high wages and high transfer fees for a player you have to be able to justify the revenue impact. If a club has a leaky defence they could say instead of signing Rice for £100 million, we’ll just get a coach who’ll improve our defence.
“There haven’t been many defensive midfielders who have been sold for more than £50 million. The market tells us that the very best defensive midfielders will go for £45 million-£65 million and that was pre-COVID. If you’re David Moyes you’re going to talk up the value of your player.
“If someone asked Moyes what he thinks Rice’s valuation is and he said something along the lines of £40 million-£50 million then the bids will be a lot lower than if you were to say he’s worth £100 million.”
There is every chance Rice’s stock will continue to rise providing he has a strong tournament for England at the forthcoming European Championship.
They say there is a first time for everything and while West Ham have no intention of selling the 22-year-old, if any defensive midfielder were to command a fee in excess of £100 million then it could well be Rice
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